All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.
Runners with red highlighting have not run recently and are not in the tournament simulation.
| Season Rating | | Preseason Rating | |
Zionsville Early Bird Invite (4k) |
Hamilton County |
Wildcat Classic |
Flashrock Invitational |
Hoosier Crossroads Conference |
Noblesville JV Invitational |
Pendleton Heights Sectional |
Delta Regional |
New Haven Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| Date | | |
8/20 |
8/27 |
9/10 |
9/17 |
9/24 |
10/5 |
10/8 |
10/15 |
10/22 |
10/29 |
| Team Rating |
359 | |
306 |
287 |
338 |
343 |
365 |
535 |
346 |
544 |
329 |
514 |
| Team Adjusted Rating | | |
306 |
287 |
338 |
343 |
365 |
356 |
346 |
359 |
329 |
514 |
|
| State Rank | Runner | | Season Rating | Preseason Rating |
Zionsville Early Bird Invite (4k) |
Hamilton County |
Wildcat Classic |
Flashrock Invitational |
Hoosier Crossroads Conference |
Noblesville JV Invitational |
Pendleton Heights Sectional |
Delta Regional |
New Haven Semi-State |
State Finals |
|---|
| 60 |
Ash Caylor |
12 |
16:20 |
16:23 |
16:25 |
16:14 |
16:13 |
16:13 |
16:21 |
|
16:31 |
|
16:14 |
16:30 |
| 128 |
Liam Powers |
9 |
16:44 |
|
16:34 |
16:38 |
16:42 |
16:51 |
16:39 |
|
16:36 |
|
16:37 |
20:29 |
| 205 |
Andrew Smith |
11 |
17:03 |
|
17:06 |
17:33 |
17:06 |
17:03 |
17:01 |
|
16:58 |
|
16:54 |
17:37 |
| 208 |
Ian Ross |
11 |
17:04 |
16:40 |
16:49 |
16:39 |
17:11 |
16:49 |
17:14 |
|
17:02 |
|
17:12 |
17:29 |
| 241 |
Nick Vega |
10 |
17:09 |
18:05 |
16:47 |
16:52 |
|
17:10 |
17:14 |
|
17:08 |
|
17:01 |
18:02 |
| 295 |
Tate Watson |
10 |
17:17 |
17:45 |
17:46 |
17:26 |
17:55 |
17:35 |
17:08 |
|
17:02 |
|
17:07 |
17:25 |
| 316 |
Joe Augustine |
12 |
17:20 |
17:29 |
17:04 |
17:20 |
|
17:22 |
17:28 |
17:29 |
|
17:09 |
|
17:21 |
| 319 |
Zeke Benedict |
9 |
17:20 |
|
17:21 |
17:00 |
17:07 |
17:28 |
17:23 |
17:32 |
|
17:18 |
|
|
| 330 |
Zach Swedarsky |
10 |
17:22 |
17:21 |
17:00 |
17:19 |
17:25 |
17:42 |
17:13 |
|
17:28 |
|
|
|
| 350 |
Michael Chalfant |
10 |
17:25 |
|
17:18 |
17:04 |
17:08 |
17:10 |
17:39 |
18:04 |
|
17:29 |
|
|
| 351 |
Adam Warski |
11 |
17:25 |
17:24 |
17:16 |
17:12 |
16:55 |
17:54 |
17:32 |
17:12 |
|
17:52 |
|
|
| 403 |
Ben Tuckis |
10 |
17:32 |
17:53 |
17:41 |
17:54 |
17:49 |
17:27 |
17:24 |
17:27 |
|
17:30 |
|
|
| 424 |
Joshua Montgomery |
9 |
17:34 |
|
17:55 |
17:31 |
17:52 |
17:45 |
17:17 |
17:36 |
|
17:27 |
|
|
| 445 |
Matthew Hemmerling |
11 |
17:38 |
17:06 |
17:31 |
16:53 |
17:04 |
18:38 |
17:48 |
17:07 |
|
|
18:36 |
|
| 525 |
Riley Schamp |
9 |
17:46 |
|
18:05 |
17:49 |
17:49 |
17:51 |
17:44 |
17:46 |
|
17:37 |
|
|
| 572 |
Brayden Gebhard |
11 |
17:50 |
17:05 |
17:24 |
17:40 |
17:40 |
17:59 |
17:53 |
18:08 |
|
|
|
|
| 654 |
Truman Cluff |
12 |
17:59 |
18:59 |
18:20 |
18:02 |
18:01 |
17:58 |
17:49 |
17:58 |
|
|
|
|
| 701 |
Deagan Baker |
10 |
18:03 |
|
18:42 |
19:07 |
18:08 |
17:27 |
17:53 |
18:01 |
|
|
|
|
| 745 |
William Henning |
9 |
18:07 |
|
17:43 |
18:03 |
18:02 |
18:00 |
18:16 |
18:27 |
|
|
|
|
| 756 |
Aidan Lawson |
10 |
18:09 |
|
17:53 |
18:07 |
17:59 |
18:00 |
18:17 |
18:28 |
|
|
|
|
| 994 |
Colin Brier |
12 |
18:28 |
18:06 |
18:40 |
18:17 |
18:15 |
18:27 |
18:32 |
18:36 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,003 |
Christopher Wilcox |
10 |
18:29 |
|
18:50 |
19:01 |
|
18:13 |
18:29 |
18:21 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,006 |
Andrew Voight |
9 |
18:29 |
|
18:44 |
18:26 |
18:28 |
18:16 |
18:19 |
18:53 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,113 |
Cal Wilcox |
|
18:38 |
|
|
|
18:39 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1,147 |
Andrew Kennedy |
12 |
18:40 |
18:45 |
17:45 |
18:10 |
19:06 |
19:16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1,149 |
Sam Pridemore |
10 |
18:40 |
|
19:01 |
18:43 |
18:37 |
18:37 |
18:26 |
18:50 |
|
|
|
|
| 1,160 |
Luke Walters |
10 |
18:41 |
|
17:52 |
18:48 |
19:18 |
18:36 |
18:48 |
18:37 |
|
|
|
|
|
Evan Leblanc |
10 |
19:06 |
|
19:01 |
19:11 |
19:10 |
19:01 |
19:09 |
19:06 |
|
|
|
|
|
Connor Pugh |
9 |
19:08 |
|
19:01 |
18:59 |
19:20 |
19:19 |
19:11 |
19:04 |
|
|
|
|
|
Noah Kline |
10 |
19:31 |
|
19:40 |
20:08 |
18:35 |
18:56 |
20:09 |
19:36 |
|
|
|
|
|
Gibson Helmreich |
11 |
19:35 |
|
19:02 |
19:05 |
20:05 |
20:11 |
19:33 |
19:36 |
|
|
|
|
|
Benjamin Butler |
12 |
19:36 |
|
19:33 |
19:40 |
|
20:35 |
18:57 |
19:37 |
|
|
|
|
IHSAA Tournament Simulation
Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament.
Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.
Team Results
| Advances to Round | Avg Finish | Avg Score |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
| State Finals |
97.1% |
16.0 |
415 |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.8 |
1.5 |
2.3 |
4.4 |
6.4 |
7.6 |
9.8 |
10.2 |
10.7 |
9.8 |
9.8 |
7.5 |
6.1 |
4.5 |
2.6 |
1.8 |
0.7 |
| Semi-State |
100% |
4.1 |
153 |
1.0 |
9.9 |
25.0 |
27.0 |
21.0 |
13.2 |
2.2 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Regionals |
100% |
2.0 |
53 |
1.6 |
98.0 |
0.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Sectionals |
100% |
2.0 |
52 |
1.6 |
98.3 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Individual Results
Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.
| State Meet | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Ash Caylor |
98.1% |
63.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
34.1% |
85.9% |
| Liam Powers |
97.1% |
106.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
16.3% |
| Andrew Smith |
97.1% |
137.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.5% |
| Ian Ross |
97.1% |
138.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.4% |
| Nick Vega |
97.1% |
147.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.1% |
| Tate Watson |
97.1% |
158.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Joe Augustine |
97.1% |
163.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
0.0% |
| Semi-State | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Ash Caylor |
100% |
11.2 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.9 |
2.8 |
4.4 |
5.5 |
6.4 |
7.0 |
7.3 |
7.4 |
6.7 |
6.6 |
6.2 |
5.4 |
5.0 |
4.3 |
4.1 |
3.6 |
2.9 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
1.8 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
|
100.0% |
| Liam Powers |
100% |
28.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
3.6 |
3.6 |
3.9 |
4.3 |
|
100.0% |
| Andrew Smith |
100% |
51.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
|
100.0% |
| Ian Ross |
100% |
53.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
|
100.0% |
| Nick Vega |
100% |
61.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Tate Watson |
100% |
72.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Joe Augustine |
100% |
77.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
99.9% |
| Regionals | Advances to Round | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| Indv No Team | Indv |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Ash Caylor |
100% |
4.5 |
1.3 |
6.3 |
19.0 |
15.8 |
14.1 |
14.1 |
13.6 |
9.6 |
5.2 |
0.8 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Liam Powers |
100% |
9.4 |
|
|
0.1 |
0.8 |
1.8 |
2.8 |
4.7 |
10.0 |
18.0 |
32.5 |
13.6 |
9.0 |
5.0 |
1.2 |
0.5 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.0% |
| Andrew Smith |
100% |
13.3 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
3.1 |
12.0 |
13.5 |
15.7 |
17.3 |
14.4 |
9.8 |
5.7 |
3.0 |
2.1 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Ian Ross |
100% |
13.5 |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
2.6 |
10.0 |
12.8 |
15.4 |
16.9 |
14.3 |
11.0 |
6.6 |
4.0 |
2.5 |
1.4 |
0.6 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
|
100.0% |
| Nick Vega |
100% |
15.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
3.4 |
6.5 |
9.6 |
13.0 |
14.6 |
16.0 |
12.8 |
8.7 |
5.5 |
3.8 |
2.2 |
1.3 |
0.8 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
|
100.0% |
| Tate Watson |
100% |
17.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
3.0 |
5.1 |
8.0 |
11.7 |
14.8 |
14.8 |
11.7 |
9.5 |
6.1 |
4.7 |
3.2 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
|
100.0% |
| Joe Augustine |
100% |
18.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
1.3 |
2.9 |
5.2 |
7.4 |
12.1 |
15.3 |
14.2 |
11.8 |
8.3 |
6.8 |
5.0 |
3.2 |
2.0 |
|
100.0% |
| Sectionals | Avg Finish |
Finishing Place |
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
23 |
24 |
25 |
| Ash Caylor |
3.6 |
3.6 |
20.8 |
17.0 |
15.0 |
14.1 |
13.4 |
9.9 |
5.1 |
0.9 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Liam Powers |
8.4 |
|
0.1 |
0.8 |
1.4 |
2.7 |
4.7 |
9.7 |
18.7 |
33.2 |
13.6 |
8.8 |
5.0 |
1.3 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Andrew Smith |
12.2 |
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.9 |
3.1 |
11.5 |
13.8 |
16.3 |
17.5 |
15.6 |
10.6 |
6.1 |
3.0 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
|
| Ian Ross |
12.4 |
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
2.6 |
11.1 |
12.8 |
15.4 |
18.1 |
15.4 |
11.3 |
7.2 |
3.4 |
1.4 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
| Nick Vega |
13.9 |
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
0.7 |
3.6 |
6.6 |
10.2 |
13.1 |
16.8 |
17.2 |
14.5 |
9.6 |
5.4 |
1.6 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
| Tate Watson |
16.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
1.6 |
3.0 |
5.3 |
8.7 |
13.5 |
18.2 |
20.3 |
16.2 |
8.9 |
3.0 |
0.6 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
|
|
| Joe Augustine |
16.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0 |
|
0.2 |
0.8 |
1.4 |
2.9 |
5.1 |
8.8 |
14.3 |
21.2 |
22.2 |
15.6 |
5.9 |
1.3 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
|
|
|
